Quietish

Pleasant walk in the morning, in the relative quiet before the Sunday crowds, and in the good weather before the sun gets to work and the warmish air near the ground wants to replace the cold pool aloft. Also pleasant in that my moving parts seem relatively OK at the moment.

Combine a large population declining exponentially or at least not growing fast with a tiny population growing quickly exponentially, and the small population of viruses will eventually come to dominate. In the case of the variant first identified in India, ‘eventually’ might mean ‘quite soon’. I don’t know whether this is the reason the number of cases in our borough has gone up 5-10x in the last couple of weeks, but it could be. (The sample must be very small, so there’s a lot of randomness – and that alone may explain the jump). The government (in response) appears to have changed the vaccination policy from “keep transmission down” to “give maximum protection to vulnerable people”. Will we be able to give enough protection that we can live with this disease?

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