A nice morning for going out on a short people-avoiding walk around the block.
Just been looking at the BBC website, and stuff about the virus Reproduction Rate. Apparently, R is about 3 with no restrictions, and 0.7 with lockdown. So, if we’re still in the exponential phase (which we will be until there’s a vaccine, or most people get it), then at a rough calculation(*) you need 3 days of lockdown for every day of freedom, in order to maintain parity – and obviously you would want to maintain parity at much much lower levels than the current horrifying total.
It’s not as simple as that of course. The good news is that when numbers are lower, you can make an attempt at contact tracing and perhaps get a clean sweep in some areas. Things are patchy, too. The spread of the virus in different populations is different. Once it gets in a care home, it’s very difficult to get it out again. Protective measures can be applied in a way that responds to conditions.
But all in all, it’s a horrible time, and decisions are hard.
* 0.7^3 * 3 = 1.029 (i.e. near enough 1)
God of love,
we pray for the people of this nation
and all nations.
Bring healing for the sick,
comfort those who grieve.
Give wisdom and strength
to people with hard decisions to make.
Help us all to deal with what we face now.
May all people who suffer
know the companionship of Christ.