{"id":1985,"date":"2020-12-30T09:23:06","date_gmt":"2020-12-30T09:23:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bobjanet.org.uk\/bobsblog\/?p=1985"},"modified":"2020-12-30T09:41:57","modified_gmt":"2020-12-30T09:41:57","slug":"not-going-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bobjanet.org.uk\/bobsblog\/2020\/12\/30\/not-going-out\/","title":{"rendered":"Not going out"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Misty and dull this morning, still, and temperature not very different from freezing. There&#8217;s quite a lot of ice about, so I decided my only walk this morning was going to be to the shop, as slipping and turning up at hospital with an injury would be antisocial. Maybe next year I&#8217;ll take a chance. Anyway, I accomplished the shopping mission with full verticality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our fairy lights are still on and will be for another week. Some people have had enough already &#8211; on the way to the shops I was forced into the road by a discarded Christmas tree.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Just had a quick look at Psalm 148 in <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/lectionary.library.vanderbilt.edu\/texts.php?id=55\" target=\"_blank\">Sunday&#8217;s Lectionary.<\/a>.. brilliant picture of the whole creation praising its Creator, both the unpleasant stuff and the stuff helpful to humanity. The whole created world in harmony&#8230; hard to take in a time of gloom, ice, earthquakes and COVID-19, but creation is a whole and wonderful, and it&#8217;s great to study, and it deserves to be treated with respect. And we can handle the bad stuff if we understand it and prepare &#8211; so where are all the scientists in government? &#8211; an understanding of the exponential function would surely be more useful than a degree in PPE or even a second-rate degree in classics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Please pray for the people of <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/av\/world-europe-55478530\" target=\"_blank\">Croatia<\/a>, and <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/uk-england-essex-55480147\" target=\"_blank\">Essex<\/a>&#8230;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Good news that <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/health-55280671\" target=\"_blank\">the Astra Zeneca vaccine has been passed for use here<\/a> &#8211; I was hoping  that by now we&#8217;d have more light shed on those weird test results. Just a quick sum &#8230; left to itself the &#8216;original&#8217; COVID spread with an R number of 3-4 ISTR. If the new strain is 50% more spreadable, then we&#8217;re looking at an R of 5-ish. If the vaccine is 60% effective , then would it cut transmission by about that percentage, a factor of 2.5 &#8211; so an R of about 2 once everyone&#8217;s been done (i.e. later this year given a following wind)? So still a need for controls on behaviour? OTOH if 90% is possible consistently, then R goes below one and we&#8217;re sorted provided enough people join in? Maybe this is a naive way to do the sums. Anyway&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8230;<em>Please give thanks for the work of scientists and many others involved in producing the vaccine.<\/em>..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Misty and dull this morning, still, and temperature not very different from freezing. There&#8217;s quite a lot of ice about, so I decided my only walk this morning was going to be to the shop, as slipping and turning up at hospital with an injury would be antisocial. Maybe next year I&#8217;ll take a chance. &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/bobjanet.org.uk\/bobsblog\/2020\/12\/30\/not-going-out\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Not going out&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1985","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bobjanet.org.uk\/bobsblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1985","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bobjanet.org.uk\/bobsblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bobjanet.org.uk\/bobsblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bobjanet.org.uk\/bobsblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bobjanet.org.uk\/bobsblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1985"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/bobjanet.org.uk\/bobsblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1985\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1988,"href":"https:\/\/bobjanet.org.uk\/bobsblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1985\/revisions\/1988"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bobjanet.org.uk\/bobsblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1985"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bobjanet.org.uk\/bobsblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1985"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bobjanet.org.uk\/bobsblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1985"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}